NE
While I expect U.S. yields to be lower than today’s estimates once the January production report comes out, I don’t expect much of a change in yield prior to that report. What could come as a surprise is the export forcast for the 2023-2024 year. Corn exports in the U.S. hit an 11 year low during the 2022-2023 calendar year. Even with poor domestic yields through harvest, I expect to see downward price pressure. The world is telling the U.S. there is too much corn and ours is priced too high. With low river levels from the drought, midwest basis could also be negatively impacted.
Irrigated crop ground sold at public auction on September 6th through Farmers National. Kearney Co Nebraska ground located 4 miles east of Minden, NE.
Pivot, quonset, and 2 smaller grain bins were included in the sale.
160.18a = $10,500/a
SW
In 2013 balance sheets looked great and profitability was high. $7.50 unpriced corn was showing on a lot of balance sheets. 125k bu at $7.50 gave you a Crop and Feed Inventory value of $937,500.
In 2017 balance sheets are barely breakeven with nothing changed except 125k bu corn unpriced is now worth $3.25. 125k bu at $3.25 gave you a Crop and Feed Inventory value of $406,250. You lost over $500,000 value on your balance sheet with nothing changed but the commodity price.
Stress test your financials now so you are prepared! Check how many bushels you had and at what value from your 2022 balance sheet. See how much Working Capital you could be losing before going on a tax buying spree this winter.
Have a great week!
Grant Wiese